It’s a few days after election day and to no one’s surprise Doug Ford has secured another majority. So, what are some takeaways from this election?
Takeaways
Conservatives performed unusually well
For starters, the Conservatives had one of the best performances in Ontario’s history while voter turnout was unusually low. Roughly a third of eligible Ontarians voted in this election. That’s kind of weird. The last four years have been filled with controversy at Ford’s left and right. Ford’s cuts to Toronto City Council had progressives carry their case all the way to the supreme court, Black Lives Matter challenged the role of police officers, cuts to schools angered parents, and the Bradford Bypass has earned the ire of environmentalists and transportation experts alike.
On the other hand, far right figures bristled under Covid lockdowns and vaccine mandates. Right wingers occupied Ottawa, protested at Queen’s Park and shut down key bridges in the southwest. Two new right-wing parties, The New Blue Party and the Ontario Party were formed out of misinformation and anger with Ford’s attempts to curtail the spread of Covid-19. Attempts that others have criticized for not going far enough. Regardless, there were plenty of issues that could have sparked interest in this election, I’ve just mentioned a few out of many.
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The NDP & Liberals trailed behind
New Blue and the Ontario Party failed to win a single seat between them. A welcome development for those of us who have taken Covid seriously. As for the left, the NDP lost seats and the Liberals had another historically bad performance. Neither leader could capitalize on the controversies of the Ford government.
Steven Del Duca resigned after failing to win his seat and while the Liberals actually won a number of votes similar to that of the NDP, they couldn’t translate that into a decent seat count. Coming in second and third place everywhere doesn’t mean anything in our electoral system.
What does this mean for the Liberal Party?
For starters, they’re going to have get a really good party leader. Selecting Steven Del Duca, who lost his seat in 2018 meant that the Liberals made an invisible man the face of their party. Del Duca had no presence in Queen’s Park, making it extremely difficult to do what a leader needs to do; grab people’s attention, make their opponent look bad and convince people to believe in them. If the Liberals are going to ever come back, they’re going to need someone people can get excited about, someone already in Queen’s Park. That way when 2026 comes around, they’ll have a leader with some kind of record of opposition.
To that end, one person stands out as someone to watch. Mitzie Hunter of Scarborough- Guildwood took her seat in 2013, surviving three elections since. She also ran for party leader, coming fourth behind Del Duca, Michael Coteau, and Kate Graham. Coteau moved onto federal politics last year and it would be tough for the party to convince him to switch back to a weak provincial party after having just made the switch to a strong federal party. Kate Graham has never held a seat in Parliament, having lost two attempts to capture London North Centre. With years of experience and a successful electoral record in good times and bad times, Mitzie Hunter is definitely someone to watch.
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The NDP is now leaderless
The NDP also find themselves leaderless albeit under very different circumstances. Andrea Horwath also resigned on election night but unlike her liberal counterpart, her resignation was more bittersweet. While forming government is always the NDP’s goal, Horwath took the Ontario NDP closer to government than it’s seen since Bob Rae. Horwath fought four provincial elections as party leader, turning the NDP from a third party into the Official Opposition and managed to hold on to that win even as the once powerful Liberal Party attempted a comeback. With that in mind, her farewell is not at all the same as Del Duca’s.
So, who will be the next person to lead Ontario’s New Democrats? With 31 MPPs in Queen’s Park the NDP has a deeper bench than the Liberals. It’ll be interesting to see who steps up to the plate.
